Budgeting for 2026 promises to be challenging. With pressures on payroll, the need for investment in training, and macroeconomic uncertainties, the HR leader must become a financial strategist. Here’s a 4-step method.
Step 1: Clarify HR Priorities for 2026
- Which critical roles?
- Which skills to develop?
- Which functions to automate?
Step 2: Model Major Budget Items
- Payroll (evolution per role vs headcount),
- Training (by target population, based on estimated ROI),
- Recruitment (volume vs channels),
- HR projects (digitalization, quality of life at work, etc.)
Step 3: Integrate Alternative Scenarios
- Plan A: Moderate growth (inflation at 3%)
- Plan B: Contraction/freeze (pessimistic scenario)
- Plan C: Growth + recovery (targeted HR investments)
Step 4: Argue & Scenario Design
A good HR budget is not just an Excel list. It’s a narrative vision, quantified and aligned with the company’s strategy. It should reflect ambition and social responsibility.
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